With crude oil at well over $100 a barrel one would have thought that exporting countries would be producing as much as they could to cash-in on the bonanza. However, a growing number of respected industry figures are now starting to question mainstream forecasts for supply, suggesting that the era of “plateau oil” is nearer than many in the business care to admit.

It remains a fact that whilst global oil demand is projected to grow to more than 100 million barrels per day (bpd) over the next few decades, it also remains a fact that supply is unlikely to increase much beyond the current rate of some 86 million bpd. To make matters worse, even when oil extraction from so-called unconventional sources, such as tar sands and converted from natural gas are taken into account, supply will continue to decline against demand.

A former top official at state oil giant Saudi Aramco is quoted as saying: “Today’s oil prices are high because there are limited new supplies. “There’s a history now. We’re several years into level production.”

Back in 1980, when crude oil first hit $100 per barrel, the impact was alleviated by producing countries and major oil companies increasing production, partly through exploiting new fields. It remains to be seen whether they are capable of responding in the same way this time around - many doubt it.

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA) conventional supply from outside OPEC has missed forecasts in recent years and appears to have hit an “effective plateau” in terms of production capability. Non-OPEC countries currently extract around 60% of the world’s oil, with the 13 members of OPEC making up the balance. Most OPEC countries, whether for reasons of war or sanctions, lack of investment or falling supply at ageing fields, are deemed unable to raise production. Or, as top oil official for OPEC member Libya, told the media recently: “Opec can do little. Most OPEC countries are producing at capacity.”

Furthermore, a former exploration geologist claims: “Every place is more or less running flat out. They can’t pump enough to meet demand, so the price is going up. Assuming no particular economic crash, the only direction is upwards.”

The view of some experts vary. Some believe that the supply of oil, including unconventional oil, will peak in 2010. Others claim that high prices will sustain a production plateau of 85 million bpd for up to around 2018, thereafter production will go into a long, gradual decline, reducing the world’s supply of oil and natural gas liquids to about 78 million bpd by 2030.

The bottom line, which most experts now agree, is that demand will outstrip availability. The bone of contention is merely whether the point of divergence has already been reached or simply postponed for a few more years. The need to develop new, clean and green forms of energy have never been so acute and is, undoubtedly, one of the major challenges of the Age.